Six Years of CAO Points: What Moved and Why

This site holds Round 1 cut-offs for 2,409 courses across the published CAO charts from 2020 to 2025. Six years is long enough for patterns to separate from noise, and the dataset carries plenty of both. The numbers carry a lesson for anyone weighing up a course list this spring.

The 2021 bump and the slow exhale

In 2020 the median Level 8 Round 1 cut-off sat at about 370 points, with portfolio courses excluded. Then came calculated grades. Results rose across the board, demand chased them, and by 2021 the median had climbed to about 410. The years since have let the air out a little at a time, down to 377 by 2025. After the whole cycle, the median finished close to where it began.

The shape of that curve matters more than its endpoints. A student who anchored on 2020 cut-offs found 2021 brutal. One who anchored on 2021 found the following years kinder than feared. Each cohort inherited the previous cohort's weather. You can see the medians by year, and the full distribution behind them, on the insights page.

The extremes

Medians hide the outliers, and the outliers here are dramatic. The biggest non-portfolio climber in the dataset rose 264 points between 2020 and 2025. The biggest slide ran 254 points in the other direction. And one course printed the same cut-off in six consecutive charts, frozen through a pandemic, grade inflation, and the deflation that followed. The records section of the trends page lists them.

A swing of 264 points means a 2020 cut-off told a 2025 applicant close to nothing. Swings that size are rare, but the range shows how far one published number can drift while the headline median holds its course. Two courses can share a cut-off this year and head in opposite directions for the next three.

Weather and climate

A single year's cut-off is weather. It reflects that year's applicants and that year's places, and either can lurch without warning. The six-year line is climate. It shows whether demand for a course is building or fading, and it puts a strange year, 2021 above all, in context instead of letting it stand alone.

This distinction changes real decisions. A course 20 points above your expected total looks shut on last year's chart. If its cut-off has slid for three consecutive years, the picture softens. If it has climbed through the same stretch, even matching last year's number may leave you short. The line tells you which situation you face; the single number cannot.

Putting it to work this spring

If your application went in before this month's deadline, the list is filed but the season is long. Check cao.ie for the dates of any amendment windows later in the year, and use the waiting time to pressure-test what you submitted.

1. Trace the six-year line for each course on your list. An evening covers all ten. Flag any course where your hopes rest on one unusual year.
2. Revisit the order. Points predictions tempt students into defensive ranking, and the offer engine punishes that habit. Our guide to ranking by genuine preference walks through the mechanics.
3. Check the lower half holds firm. If a slide elsewhere could squeeze your fallback choices, strengthen the safety net while you can.

The 2026 cut-offs will arrive with results season, and no chart on this site can predict them. The 2025 numbers are the latest published, and the six-year line behind each one is the most honest forecast available. Read the climate, then aim where you wanted to aim in the first place.