Will CAO Points Rise in 2026?
Open r/leavingcert during exam week and the same thread appears in ten variations: will points go up this year? The honest answer comes in two parts. Anyone who claims to know the August cut-offs in June is guessing, and anyone selling certainty is selling. At the same time, you can reason about points better than most of the people replying, because cut-offs move for two knowable reasons.
Two forces set a cut-off
A course's points are the score of the last applicant admitted, so two forces decide where the line lands. Demand is the first: the number of people who place the course high on their lists. Supply is the second: where the cohort's grades land, which decides how many applicants hold 450 or 550 points in a given year. One viral video can push a single course up while the rest of the chart sits still. A generous grading year can lift the whole chart at once. Neither force is measurable in June, because the lists can change until 1 July and the grades do not exist yet.
The 2020 to 2025 lesson
The supply force showed its full strength during the pandemic. Calculated and inflated grades pushed the median Level 8 cut-off from about 370 in 2020 to about 410 in 2021. As grading eased back toward older norms, the median drifted down, reaching 377 at Round 1 of 2025 with portfolio courses excluded. Demand kept reshuffling individual courses underneath that tide throughout. Our six-year review walks through the period in detail, and the trends page lets you put any two courses side by side to see which ones rode the tide and which ones moved on their own.
The one early signal
The CAO publishes applicant statistics during the cycle, including first-preference counts by course. Power users compare this year's count for a course against last year's, because a jump in first preferences shows the demand force moving months before results day. It is the closest thing to a leading indicator anyone has. It says nothing about grading, it can shift again during Change of Mind, and it still beats a Reddit thread. The figures sit on cao.ie for anyone willing to read a table, and the comparison against last year takes ten minutes.
Our outlook bands, and the label on them
Each course page on this site shows a next-year outlook band computed from that course's six-year trend and volatility. The label calls it a guide, and the label is honest. A band describes how a course has behaved, and August can still surprise. Treat it the way you treat a weather range: useful for packing, useless as a promise.
The cushion question matters more
"Will points rise?" is the wrong unit of worry, because the chart moves course by course. The useful question is whether your own margins survive a rise. An estimate 30 or more points above a course's 2025 cut-off survives a typical year-to-year increase. Under 30, the course belongs in your hope zone, with something sturdier beneath it. Run your numbers through the calculator to see your margin on each course, then judge each choice on its own cushion instead of on the national mood.
The two things you control this month
The first is the paper in front of you tomorrow morning. One grade band gained in one subject adds more points than any amount of forecasting, and the forecasting takes energy the paper deserves. The second is your list. The Change of Mind window stays open until 5pm on 1 July, it is free, and our rebuild checklist takes an evening between exam papers. Get the cushions right, rank by genuine desire, and let August answer its own question.